I do not believe that the stock market technical analysis methods, but the trends behind the stock market must correspond to the fundamental factors, some of the major stock market history, combined with its technical form of fundamental factors behind the analysis may make some judgments on our analysis of the stock market Some future trends to help.
similar to last July's index of the current form is a typical form of a triangle head. In general, the head shape is a big market in the game a long time after the formation of repeated, once a breakthrough may mean the formation of a new trend. 20-year history of the stock market there have been three times in the head and gradually reduce the adjustment patterns in the formation of these three trends, each case is very representative, may wish to make one by one some analysis.
1993 年 head shape was the result of a breakthrough to the next, taking a big bear market, the most important reason is that monetary tightening. The stock market started to decline in 1993, had gone through before the bull market in a short period of time is the end of 1992 to early 1993, from 17 November 1992 starting 386 points to 16 February 1993 of the 1558 points, only 3 months, the market rose as high as 303% (need to add is that May 1992 there have been short the stock market to rise, also has a relationship with the southern tour speech, May 21, 1992 Shanghai suddenly full liberalization of stock, the market directly Tiaokonggaokai at 1260.32 points, up 104.27 increase over the previous day %. only 3 days later and climb to the top 1420 points. subsequently fell sharply. The ups and downs caused mainly by the change in trading system, can be ignored.) Deng Xiaoping's southern tour in 1992 because of speech, there go all over the country fast on the boom, credit and currency soared dramatically in a few months. to the second half of 1993, prices began to rise rapidly, the CPI in 1994 rose to more than 20%, inflation situation worse. At that time, Zhu Rongji, Vice premier travel macro command, the main means of control time was only compressed to the normal range. This shows that monetary and credit put out easy, take it back is very difficult.
in the contraction of credit and currency markets during the inevitable injuries, this is the stock market go in 1993, a few bear market years of the most important reason. Meanwhile,UGG shoes, the Government has had a rescue initiatives, the time is August 1994, the Government launched the bear pattern is maintained, by the shape of the bottom of the head at about 1000 continued to decline to 350 points.
the current bear market on Chinese stock market has a lot of reference on the stock market is facing .2010 monetary policy environment and 1993, there are many similarities, the basic trend of monetary tightening. Of course, the macroeconomic situation in 2010 and 1993 also have large differences, mainly in the following two aspects:
First, there is no upward pressure on prices in 1993, then Back in 1993,Bailey UGG boots, China is in great shortage economy, the increase in money directly reflected in the price of the ordinary consumer goods. And in 2010 China has been the era of surplus goods, money does not necessarily increase the performance for the price rise, , the urgency of monetary tightening than in 1993 and 1994. The current main problem is that soaring housing prices, if the way through the current (mainly by administrative means) can not stop the trend of housing prices, then the intensity of monetary tightening is bound to strengthen it on the stock market is falling faster.
second is not the same Back in 1993, the financial environment in China is still in the era of shortage of funds, the performance of the investment rate greater than the savings rate, high interest rates, one-year time deposit rate is 10.98%,UGG boots cheap, and a store of value supplement. and the 2010 savings rate of China's financial status quo is greater than the investment rate, the capital has a surplus of low interest rates.
However, if the price and interest rate levels comprehensive perspective, China in 2010 and 1993 have similarities in China, real interest rates are negative. In any case, after the stock market fundamentals in 1993 and 2010 the situation is more and more common after 1993 run trend in the stock market investors should be highly concerned about the current.
say the stock market in 1999 before the year 1999 up to May 1, more than a year, the stock market out of the head shape, but in mid-May, When the index broke down when confronted, the Government adopted a series of measures prop the market in more than a month rose to 1756 points from 1047 points, followed by adjustments in 2001 has risen to 2245 points. This is 5.19 famous quotes. The reason why the Government to prop up the market at that time was to get rid of internal and external problems, internal problems is the , that allows the market to finance state-owned enterprises to make state-owned enterprises out of difficulties, and the stock market rose after the birth could use the power of all, including offense (Guangxia financial fraud case, the East electronic financial fraud case, funds are all shady product of that era), can be described without their utmost.
Because of this, so that the securities company into a highly leveraged risk. at the time securities firms generally take misappropriation of clients funds or lending the way of high interest rates Zuozhuang stocks, as long as prices stop rising, securities companies will be heavy losses, which is a typical (See the author in 2009 some of the balance sheet recession in the analysis). In short, the so-called balance sheet-type recession is a country or a region of the total business or personal assets and liabilities not reduced shrink themselves in financial difficulties phenomenon. When a group of businesses or individuals in society's balance sheet problems, even if these companies or individuals the normal production activities, but its cash flow must first be used to repay debt, inability to Kuoda liabilities, expand production scale, expansion of the market will lose their power. At this point, no matter how the central bank to lower interest rates, corporate debt is also no intention to expand the scale of monetary policy will fail. This economist John Maynard Keynes called
recession in the balance sheet is the presentation of the macroeconomic state of a phenomenon or a theoretical hypothesis, I believe that the hypothesis of the theory used to analyze the stock market and real estate market was also useful. When the stock market investors (especially the main investors) the destruction of the balance sheet, the market lost momentum to attract incremental funding, will fall into a bear market.
2001 年 to 2005, the securities company is the main market, when the main balance sheet into a generally difficulties, the stock market ), the market was restored vitality.
2001 至 2005 is the strongest economic performance in China 5 years, economists typically describe the ideal m of low inflation, high growth, while the stock market is out of the bear market This lesson is worth serious consideration. This process tells us that, by artificially stimulating higher economic growth or stimulate the stock market will leave sequelae. in particular to stimulate the economy through credit expansion, or the stock market extremely dangerous practice, it is easy The the process of credit blowout in the end how much money into the stock and property markets? in the August 2009 stock market crash, we seem to see some signs of credit funds,Discount UGG boots, fled in panic, but the nature of human greed decided there must be Many credit funds left in the stock market, these funds will be the future stock market scourge.
in the financial markets, fear is excessive leverage. with their own funds to buy financial products will not form a systematic risk, if you put too much leverage, once the market to reverse the risk of the outbreak of the system, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis nature of the same. Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission has said that credit funds to the speculation The situation is similar, it should be tight as the main tone is, therefore, difficult to have a good stock market performance.
2, China will face in the near future, the risk of the real estate bubble burst, it is likely once again into the balance sheet-type recession. If 2001-2005 is only securities company into a recession in the balance sheet, then, the decline in real estate prices are related to the broader, including not only individual investors, businesses, including local government. < br> 3, from the stock market itself is a huge challenge .2010 circulation and several trillion in stock market value of flow required, although most of them do not really flow, but need cash in the amount of money can be ignored, especially Bear in the stock price go, these cash funds often the last straw that breaks the camel.
the stock market's future is always unknown, history only as a reference.
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